Serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 was shortened over time by nonpharmaceutical interventions.
Identifieur interne : 000638 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000637; suivant : 000639Serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 was shortened over time by nonpharmaceutical interventions.
Auteurs : Sheikh Taslim Ali [République populaire de Chine] ; Lin Wang [Royaume-Uni, France] ; Eric H Y. Lau [République populaire de Chine] ; Xiao-Ke Xu [République populaire de Chine] ; Zhanwei Du [États-Unis] ; Ye Wu [République populaire de Chine] ; Gabriel M. Leung [République populaire de Chine] ; Benjamin J. Cowling [République populaire de Chine]Source :
- Science (New York, N.Y.) [ 1095-9203 ] ; 2020.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Betacoronavirus (MeSH), Chine (épidémiologie), Facteurs temps (MeSH), Humains (MeSH), Incidence (MeSH), Infections à coronavirus (transmission), Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie), Isolement du patient (MeSH), Pandémies (MeSH), Pneumopathie virale (transmission), Pneumopathie virale (épidémiologie), Prévision (MeSH), Taux de reproduction de base (MeSH).
- MESH :
- Wicri :
- geographic : République populaire de Chine.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Basic Reproduction Number (MeSH), Betacoronavirus (MeSH), China (epidemiology), Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology), Coronavirus Infections (transmission), Forecasting (MeSH), Humans (MeSH), Incidence (MeSH), Pandemics (MeSH), Patient Isolation (MeSH), Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology), Pneumonia, Viral (transmission), Time Factors (MeSH).
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : China.
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- transmission : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- Basic Reproduction Number, Betacoronavirus, Forecasting, Humans, Incidence, Pandemics, Patient Isolation, Time Factors.
Abstract
Studies of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), have reported varying estimates of epidemiological parameters, including serial interval distributions-i.e., the time between illness onset in successive cases in a transmission chain-and reproduction numbers. By compiling a line-list database of transmission pairs in mainland China, we show that mean serial intervals of COVID-19 shortened substantially from 7.8 to 2.6 days within a month (9 January to 13 February 2020). This change was driven by enhanced nonpharmaceutical interventions, particularly case isolation. We also show that using real-time estimation of serial intervals allowing for variation over time provides more accurate estimates of reproduction numbers than using conventionally fixed serial interval distributions. These findings could improve our ability to assess transmission dynamics, forecast future incidence, and estimate the impact of control measures.
DOI: 10.1126/science.abc9004
PubMed: 32694200
PubMed Central: PMC7402628
Affiliations:
- France, Royaume-Uni, République populaire de Chine, États-Unis
- Angleterre, Angleterre de l'Est, Texas, Île-de-France
- Austin (Texas), Cambridge, Pékin
- Université de Cambridge, Université du Texas à Austin
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
Le document en format XML
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Lau</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Hong Kong Special Administrative Region</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xu, Xiao Ke" sort="Xu, Xiao Ke" uniqKey="Xu X" first="Xiao-Ke" last="Xu">Xiao-Ke Xu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>College of Information and Communication Engineering, Dalian Minzu University, Dalian 116600, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>College of Information and Communication Engineering, Dalian Minzu University, Dalian 116600</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Dalian 116600</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Du, Zhanwei" sort="Du, Zhanwei" uniqKey="Du Z" first="Zhanwei" last="Du">Zhanwei Du</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Integrative Biology, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78705, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Integrative Biology, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78705</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Texas</region><settlement type="city">Austin (Texas)</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université du Texas à Austin</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wu, Ye" sort="Wu, Ye" uniqKey="Wu Y" first="Ye" last="Wu">Ye Wu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>School of Journalism and Communication, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Journalism and Communication, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Pékin</settlement></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Computational Communication Research Center, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Computational Communication Research Center, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Zhuhai 519087</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Leung, Gabriel M" sort="Leung, Gabriel M" uniqKey="Leung G" first="Gabriel M" last="Leung">Gabriel M. Leung</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Hong Kong Special Administrative Region</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cowling, Benjamin J" sort="Cowling, Benjamin J" uniqKey="Cowling B" first="Benjamin J" last="Cowling">Benjamin J. Cowling</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China. bcowling@hku.hk.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Hong Kong Special Administrative Region</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Science (New York, N.Y.)</title><idno type="eISSN">1095-9203</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Basic Reproduction Number (MeSH)</term><term>Betacoronavirus (MeSH)</term><term>China (epidemiology)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (transmission)</term><term>Forecasting (MeSH)</term><term>Humans (MeSH)</term><term>Incidence (MeSH)</term><term>Pandemics (MeSH)</term><term>Patient Isolation (MeSH)</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology)</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral (transmission)</term><term>Time Factors (MeSH)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Betacoronavirus (MeSH)</term><term>Chine (épidémiologie)</term><term>Facteurs temps (MeSH)</term><term>Humains (MeSH)</term><term>Incidence (MeSH)</term><term>Infections à coronavirus (transmission)</term><term>Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie)</term><term>Isolement du patient (MeSH)</term><term>Pandémies (MeSH)</term><term>Pneumopathie virale (transmission)</term><term>Pneumopathie virale (épidémiologie)</term><term>Prévision (MeSH)</term><term>Taux de reproduction de base (MeSH)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>China</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Chine</term><term>Infections à coronavirus</term><term>Pneumopathie virale</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Basic Reproduction Number</term><term>Betacoronavirus</term><term>Forecasting</term><term>Humans</term><term>Incidence</term><term>Pandemics</term><term>Patient Isolation</term><term>Time Factors</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Betacoronavirus</term><term>Facteurs temps</term><term>Humains</term><term>Incidence</term><term>Isolement du patient</term><term>Pandémies</term><term>Prévision</term><term>Taux de reproduction de base</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="geographic" xml:lang="fr"><term>République populaire de Chine</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Studies of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), have reported varying estimates of epidemiological parameters, including serial interval distributions-i.e., the time between illness onset in successive cases in a transmission chain-and reproduction numbers. By compiling a line-list database of transmission pairs in mainland China, we show that mean serial intervals of COVID-19 shortened substantially from 7.8 to 2.6 days within a month (9 January to 13 February 2020). This change was driven by enhanced nonpharmaceutical interventions, particularly case isolation. We also show that using real-time estimation of serial intervals allowing for variation over time provides more accurate estimates of reproduction numbers than using conventionally fixed serial interval distributions. These findings could improve our ability to assess transmission dynamics, forecast future incidence, and estimate the impact of control measures.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32694200</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2020</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>03</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>03</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1095-9203</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>369</Volume><Issue>6507</Issue><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>08</Month><Day>28</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Science (New York, N.Y.)</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Science</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 was shortened over time by nonpharmaceutical interventions.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>1106-1109</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1126/science.abc9004</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>Studies of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), have reported varying estimates of epidemiological parameters, including serial interval distributions-i.e., the time between illness onset in successive cases in a transmission chain-and reproduction numbers. By compiling a line-list database of transmission pairs in mainland China, we show that mean serial intervals of COVID-19 shortened substantially from 7.8 to 2.6 days within a month (9 January to 13 February 2020). This change was driven by enhanced nonpharmaceutical interventions, particularly case isolation. We also show that using real-time estimation of serial intervals allowing for variation over time provides more accurate estimates of reproduction numbers than using conventionally fixed serial interval distributions. These findings could improve our ability to assess transmission dynamics, forecast future incidence, and estimate the impact of control measures.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y" EqualContrib="Y"><LastName>Ali</LastName><ForeName>Sheikh Taslim</ForeName><Initials>ST</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0002-8631-9076</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y" EqualContrib="Y"><LastName>Wang</LastName><ForeName>Lin</ForeName><Initials>L</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0002-5371-2138</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EH, UK.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris 75015, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y" EqualContrib="Y"><LastName>Lau</LastName><ForeName>Eric H Y</ForeName><Initials>EHY</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0002-6688-9637</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Xu</LastName><ForeName>Xiao-Ke</ForeName><Initials>XK</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0002-9148-3145</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>College of Information and Communication Engineering, Dalian Minzu University, Dalian 116600, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Du</LastName><ForeName>Zhanwei</ForeName><Initials>Z</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0002-2020-767X</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Integrative Biology, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78705, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Wu</LastName><ForeName>Ye</ForeName><Initials>Y</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0001-9038-2900</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Journalism and Communication, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Computational Communication Research Center, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Leung</LastName><ForeName>Gabriel M</ForeName><Initials>GM</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Cowling</LastName><ForeName>Benjamin J</ForeName><Initials>BJ</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0002-6297-7154</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China. bcowling@hku.hk.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D013485">Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>07</Month><Day>21</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>United States</Country><MedlineTA>Science</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>0404511</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>0036-8075</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><SupplMeshList><SupplMeshName Type="Disease" UI="C000657245">COVID-19</SupplMeshName><SupplMeshName Type="Organism" UI="C000656484">severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2</SupplMeshName></SupplMeshList><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><CommentsCorrectionsList><CommentsCorrections RefType="UpdateOf"><RefSource>Res Sq. 2020 Jun 01;:</RefSource><PMID Version="1">32702717</PMID></CommentsCorrections></CommentsCorrectionsList><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D050936" MajorTopicYN="Y">Basic Reproduction Number</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000073640" MajorTopicYN="Y">Betacoronavirus</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D002681" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">China</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D018352" MajorTopicYN="N">Coronavirus Infections</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="Y">epidemiology</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000635" MajorTopicYN="Y">transmission</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D005544" MajorTopicYN="N">Forecasting</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006801" MajorTopicYN="N">Humans</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D015994" MajorTopicYN="N">Incidence</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D058873" MajorTopicYN="N">Pandemics</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D010356" MajorTopicYN="Y">Patient Isolation</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D011024" MajorTopicYN="N">Pneumonia, Viral</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="Y">epidemiology</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000635" MajorTopicYN="Y">transmission</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D013997" MajorTopicYN="N">Time Factors</DescriptorName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2020</Year><Month>05</Month><Day>20</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2020</Year><Month>07</Month><Day>13</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>7</Month><Day>23</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>9</Month><Day>4</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>7</Month><Day>23</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32694200</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">science.abc9004</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1126/science.abc9004</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC7402628</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>France</li><li>Royaume-Uni</li><li>République populaire de Chine</li><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Angleterre</li><li>Angleterre de l'Est</li><li>Texas</li><li>Île-de-France</li></region><settlement><li>Austin (Texas)</li><li>Cambridge</li><li>Pékin</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université de Cambridge</li><li>Université du Texas à Austin</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="République populaire de Chine"><noRegion><name sortKey="Ali, Sheikh Taslim" sort="Ali, Sheikh Taslim" uniqKey="Ali S" first="Sheikh Taslim" last="Ali">Sheikh Taslim Ali</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Cowling, Benjamin J" sort="Cowling, Benjamin J" uniqKey="Cowling B" first="Benjamin J" last="Cowling">Benjamin J. Cowling</name><name sortKey="Lau, Eric H Y" sort="Lau, Eric H Y" uniqKey="Lau E" first="Eric H Y" last="Lau">Eric H Y. Lau</name><name sortKey="Leung, Gabriel M" sort="Leung, Gabriel M" uniqKey="Leung G" first="Gabriel M" last="Leung">Gabriel M. Leung</name><name sortKey="Wu, Ye" sort="Wu, Ye" uniqKey="Wu Y" first="Ye" last="Wu">Ye Wu</name><name sortKey="Wu, Ye" sort="Wu, Ye" uniqKey="Wu Y" first="Ye" last="Wu">Ye Wu</name><name sortKey="Xu, Xiao Ke" sort="Xu, Xiao Ke" uniqKey="Xu X" first="Xiao-Ke" last="Xu">Xiao-Ke Xu</name></country><country name="Royaume-Uni"><region name="Angleterre"><name sortKey="Wang, Lin" sort="Wang, Lin" uniqKey="Wang L" first="Lin" last="Wang">Lin Wang</name></region></country><country name="France"><region name="Île-de-France"><name sortKey="Wang, Lin" sort="Wang, Lin" uniqKey="Wang L" first="Lin" last="Wang">Lin Wang</name></region></country><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Texas"><name sortKey="Du, Zhanwei" sort="Du, Zhanwei" uniqKey="Du Z" first="Zhanwei" last="Du">Zhanwei Du</name></region></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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